Natural capital assets:
Drivers of environmental change:
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increased evaporation rates and reduced freshwater flow resulting in deterioration of the water quality. | Reduction of the dilution capacity of point source effluents. Decline in water quality is primarily caused by favourable conditions for the development of algae blooms (high water temperatures, long residence times, high nutrient concentrations). Changes in water temperature, eutrophication, major elements, and some heavy metals and metalloids. | Natural variation | Short term | Global |
| Decrease in the amount of water available to disperse seeds | Decreased seed dispersal by water bodies | Natural variation | Short term | Local |
| Drought displaces or reduces populations of biota. Also reduces thickness of soil water films and inhibits enzymes. | Disturbance of biotic and abiotic factors poses environmental constraints that can temporarily or indefinitely affect decomposition sensitivity. | Human action | Short-Long term | Local-Global |
| Increases in nutrients and changes in chemical composition of freshwater bodies. Physical alterations of turbidity and water flow. | Increased nutrients and/or chemicals can upset chemical condition of freshwater. | Human action | Short term | Regional |
| Anthropogenic climate change is leading to more frequent and severe droughts. Severe decreases in water flows and alterations to the geological characteristics of water bodies (e.g. desiccation of entire rivers). | Decrease in surface water provision. | Human action | Long term | Local-Regional-Global |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decreases in the number of plants along a water course. Physical alteration of water bodies. | Reduced number of seed dispersing plants. Changes to the distance and direction of seed dispersal through water bodies, resulting in decreased seed dispersal in the case of long term flooding, or increased seed dispersal in the case of short term flooding. | Natural variation | Short term | Local |
| Alters biological soil community, structural properties of parent material by exposure to water. | Changes soil’s environment and modifies processes. | Human action | Long term | Local |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural changes in local geo-morphological characteristics of water bodies lead to increase or decrease in volumes of water flow and alter flow direction. | Increase or decrease in surface water provision. | Natural variation | Short-Long term | Local-Global |
| Increased or decreased water flows through landscapes | Increased or decreased water balances within landscapes | Natural variation | Short term | Local-Regional |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alters freshwater supply and resources. | Changed habitat dynamics, reduction in stability of blue carbon habitats. | Human action | Short term | Coastal ecosystems |
| Conversion of wetlands for commercial purposes and resource extraction leads to loss of regional climate regulating function. | Conversion of wetlands causes the average temperature to increase by 0.77?C in all four seasons. | Human action | Medium term | Global |
| Certain non-fossil aquifers are no longer being replenished due to alterations made to land cover, meaning that if groundwater is abstracted aquifers will be depleted. | Loss of groundwater provision on a local basis. | Human action | Medium term | Local |
| Freshwater diversion from estuarine areas | Habitat loss leads to disruption of connectivity between spawning, nursery and adult stage habitats. | Human action | Short-Mid-term | Local-Regional |
| Lower species mobility, thus decreased ability to disperse seeds. Altered wind and hydrological processes within a given area will affect how far seeds are dispersed. | Decreased seed dispersal by animals | Human action | Short-Mid-term | Global |
| Declines in pollinator populations due to reduced access to food and nesting resources (16.5 % of vertebrate pollinator species are threatened with global extinction; in Europe, 9% of bee and butterfly species are threatened, and populations of 37% of bees and 31% of butterflies are declining) | Decreased pollination services during the peak period of pollination (i.e. spring for most crops in temperate zones). 5-8 % of global crop production would be lost if pollination services ceased. | Human action | Short term | Regional |
| Changes in intensity and extension. | Vegetation alteration can degrade or cause loss of service. | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Alters water flow, rock structure, topographic characteristics which alter soil composition | Changing decomposition and fixation processes. | Human action | Long term | Local |
| Alters water flow and availability, and rock structure and topographic characteristics which alter soil composition. | Changing decomposition and fixation processes | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Disturbance of natural water flows and sedimentation in catchments leading to geophysical alterations of water bodies Water flow will increase or decrease depending on local conditions. | Increase or decrease in provision of surface water. If a certain volume of water is removed for industrial use and is not returned afterwards, then the total volume of surface water in will be decreased by that volume. Increased sedimentation cuts light to animals, leads to nutrient blooms and loss of oxygen. | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Anthropogenic climate change is leading to severe decreases in water flows and alterations to the geological characteristics of water bodies (e.g. desiccation of entire rivers). | Decrease in surface water provision. | Human action | Long term | Local-Regional-Global |
| Changes to the way water flows through landscapes | Increased or decreased availability of water at the local and landscape level. | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alters freshwater supply and resources. | Changed habitat dynamics, reduction in stability of blue carbon habitats. | Human action | Short term | Coastal ecosystems |
| Increased vulnerability to change and pollution. | Streams and rivers near newly drilled natural gas wells are vulnerable to: sediment runoff, reduced streamflow and possible contamination from introduced chemicals and the resulting wastewater. | Human action | Short term | Global |
| Water quality, depth, turbidity, salinity and nutrient changes will lead to changes in plant community structure and health, and decreases or disappearance of biotic communities and habitat health and complexity. | Habitat loss leads to disruption of connectivity between spawning, nursery and adult stage habitats. Displacement or local extinction of adult populations, disrupting spawning patterns. Sedimentation due to shipping activity reduces light penetration, settlement success, survival, and diversity of habitats such as coral. | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Over use by humans for agriculture, energy generation, other non-drinking purposes, and other industries leads to decrease in water flow and volume. | Decrease in surface water provision. Unless water is returned in equal volumes to water bodies after abstraction, then the volume of surface water provided through water bodies will be reduced by the amount that is not returned. | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changes in sediment regime. | Sedimentation causes reservoir infill and a reduction in sediment supply downstream to create wetland features | Human action | Long term | Aquatic environments |
| The sealing of soils by urban construction in urban areas modifies the local climate. | Vegetation no longer regulates climate, leading to even higher temperatures. | Human action | Short term | Urban areas |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overfertilization and nutrient enrichment lead to algal overgrowth and loss in cover and diversity of habitats. | Habitat loss leads to disruption of connectivity between spawning, nursery and adult stage habitats. | Human action | Short-Mid-term | Local-Regional |
| Intensive agriculture (i.e. large homogenous fields with regular and intensive tillage, grazing, and/or mowing) and associated chemical use (e.g. pesticides such as neonicotinoids) has abroad range of lethal and sub-lethal effects on pollinator species. Pollinator habitat loss and disruption of daily activities. Higher rates of species mortality and reduced species survival. More specialised pollinator species (i.e. those that are highly dependent on a specific feature and are not adaptable) are more heavily affected by this impact. | Decreased pollination services. The magnitude of loss of pollination will depend on the presence of other more robust and adaptable species. | Human action | Short term | Local-Global |
| Addition of organic or inorganic matter results in changes in diversity in the soil and the microbial composition. | Alters matter composition and microbial community structure which in turn affects decomposition rate. | Human action | Short-Long term | Local-Global |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Displacement or local extinction of biotic communities. | Alien species altering ecology of system, e.g. displacing relevant species to maintain services. | Human action | Short-Mid-term | Local |
| Invasive species can deviate pollinators from the plants they normally pollinate (in the case of invasive plants) or can outcompete native pollinators (in the case of invasive pollinators) | Decreased pollination services from native pollinators to native plants. | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Reduced species survival and reduced ability of native species to disperse seeds. Reduced ability of water bodies to effectively disperse seeds. | Decreased seed dispersal by native species, and possibly less efficient seed dispersal where invasive species replace native species. Reduced water mobility due to invasive plants, leading to reduction in seed dispersal distance by water bodies. | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Alteration of chemical properties of salt water bodies. | Decreased chemical quality of salt water. | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Altered chemical balances of freshwater bodies and competition with native species | Decreased chemical condition of freshwaters resulting from lower species diversity, loss of native species, and changes in nutrient and chemical balances. | Human action | Short term | Local-Regional |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affects health of ecosystems, alters ocean currents and changes biotic communities. | Warming and acidification ocean creates thermal stress (e.g. coral bleaching), sea level rise, sedimentation, Altered ocean currents lead to changes in connectivity and temperature regimes. Ocean acidification leads to a reduction in pH levels and decreases growth rates. | Human action or Natural variation | Short-Long term | Local-Regional-Global |
| Decreased ability of species to uptake nutrients. | Decreased chemical quality of salt water. | Human action | Short term | Global |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduction in dilution service potential. | Both point and non-point source pollutants results in eutrophication and coastal economic damage, e.g. beach closures. | Human action | Short term | Coastal ecosystems |
| Habitat loss due to overfertilization and toxics contamination | Habitat loss due to clouding of coastal waters by sediment from run-off and toxics which leads to contamination. | Human action | Short-Mid-term | Local-Regional |
| Lower quality of groundwater. | Lower quality of groundwater. | Human action | Medium term | Local |
| Alters conditions: temperature, humidity, rainfall | Pollution may alter presence and conditions of urban and suburban vegetation, may diminish plants’ capacity of gas absorption. | Human action | Short-Mid-term | Global |
| Altered wind dynamics and the ability of wind to disperse seeds | Decreased dispersal distance of seeds by wind | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Microbiota are sensitive to metal pollution. Toxicity of heavy metals displaces exchangeable nutrients from binding sites. | Acid rain and pollution, acidity in air, etc. alters weathering agents in the environment (water, soil, air). | Human action | Long term | Local-Global |
| Microbiota are sensitive to metal pollution. Toxicity of heavy metals displaces exchangeable nutrients from binding sites. | Pollution inhibits litter decomposition. Decomposition is sensitive to pollution and metals contaminants at the microbial level. Metal pollution also makes plant matter difficult to decompose. May lead to algal blooms. | Human action | Short-Long term | Local-Global |
| Alterations to nutrient cycles and balances resulting from pollution due to human activities. | Reduced quality of water resources. | Human action | Short term | Global |
| Suppressed rainfall in highly polluted areas due to reduced efficiency of clouds at releasing precipitation. | Decreased water balance and disrupted hydrological cycle in polluted areas | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Alteration of chemical composition of salt water bodies and decreased pH of salt water. | Decreased quality of salt water. | Human action | Short term | Global |
| Alteration of nutrient cycles (e.g. leading to algal blooms and eutrophication), pH level, and changes to chemical composition of salt waters. Algal blooms smother sea grass. Eutrophication leads to creation of “dead zones” in the ocean, which are areas that are entirely deprived of oxygen. | Decreased chemical quality of salt water. | Human action | Short term | Local |
| Increases in nutrients, sediments and changes in chemical composition of freshwater bodies, decreased species survival. | Decreased chemical condition of freshwaters. | Human action | Short term | Regional |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caused an annual 1% decline in phytoplankton in worlds’ oceans. | Less carbon absorbed by phytoplankton for photosynthesis. | Human action | Short term | Global |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed layers of water. | Well mixed layers increase dilution potential of seawater. | Natural variation | Short term | Global |
| Affects health of ecosystems, leads to altered ocean current and water runoff changes. | Changes in storm patterns leads to destruction of structures. Changes in precipitation create increases in runoff of freshwater, and land based pollutants. | Human action or Natural variation | Short-Long term | Local-Regional-Global |
| Increases or decreases in wind velocity on a local basis | Increased or decreased quality of seed dispersal through wind | Human action | Short term | Global |
| Increases in nutrients and changes in chemical composition of freshwater bodies. Physical alterations of turbidity and water flow. | Increased nutrients and/or chemicals can upset chemical condition of freshwater. | Human action | Short term | Regional |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmentation of the river system. | Reduced dilution ability as river flow is disrupted. Increased human presence creates more effluent flow exacerbating the problem. | Human action | Short term | Global |
| Depletion of groundwater contained in aquifers. Groundwater in some areas is being used at rates exceeding the rate at which natural processes can replenish stocks. Groundwater represents 18% of water used for agricultural purposes and 13% of that used for energy production and industry purposes. | Decreased provision of groundwater. Unsustainable water abstraction from aquifers for human use is leading to drastic water shortages. | Human action | Medium term | Local |
| Reduction in the amount of water in natural resources (e.g. surface and groundwater) | Changes in when and where water returns to the atmosphere, affects local or regional water balances and precipitation patterns. | Human action | Medium term | Local-Regional |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed layers of water. | Well mixed layers increase dilution potential of seawater. | Natural variation | Short term | Global |
| Climatic anomalies (e.g. ENSO) create deficits and excesses in temperature and precipitation. | Regulation of regional climate is heavily impacted, e.g. an El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October causing major flooding in southern hemisphere countries such as Peru and Ecuador. | Natural variation | Long-term | Regional |
| Pollution resulting from anthropogenic climate change increases in rainfall. Contamination of aquifers and decreased quality of groundwater. | Lower quality of groundwater resulting from increased leaching of contaminants (e.g. nitrates) contained in rain water. | Human action | Medium term | Local |
| Increase or decrease of water available in groundwater sources. | Seasonal or annual variation (i.e. increase or decrease) in groundwater provision to the bodies that depend on it (e.g. rivers, lakes, wetlands). | Natural variation | Short term | Global |
| Alters conditions: temperature, humidity, rainfall. | Climatic conditions affect air pollution levels and absorption by vegetation. Climate changes may alter vegetation. Droughts may cause disruption of water for sound attenuation. | Human action or Natural variation | Short-Mid-term | Global |
| Increases or decreases in wind velocity. | Increases or decreases in dispersal distance through wind. | Natural variation | Short term | Local |
| Increases or decreases in wind velocity on a local basis | Increased or decreased quality of seed dispersal through wind | Natural variation | Short term | Local |
| More unstable precipitation patterns and increases in global temperature. | Increases or decreases in water balance at a local and regional scale | Human action | Short term | Global |
| Increases or decreases in the amount of rainfall and solar energy available on a regional/local basis. | Increased or decreased water balances within landscapes. | Natural variation | Short term | Regional |
| Alteration of biochemical and chemical reactions. | Biochemical reactions involved in decomposition and fixation processes are temperature dependent and have high temperature sensitivity. Low temperatures cause slow rates of chemical weathering and rely on physical processes. Warmth favours chemical weathering over physical, leading to deeper weathering. | Human action | Long term | Global |
| Alteration of biochemical and chemical reactions. | Biochemical and chemical reactions involved in decomposition and fixation processes are temperature dependent and have high temperature sensitivity. | Human action | Short-Long term | Global |
| This affects watershed- or catchment-level water flows (i.e. increase or decrease in volume of water flowing through water bodies). | Increase or decrease in surface water provision. | Natural variation | Short term | Global |
| Changes in nutrient cycles | Decreased chemical condition of freshwaters | Human action | Long term | Global |
| Changes in salinity and temperature. | Variations in chemical condition of salt water. The magnitude of the effect of this variation is minor as systems are adapted to tolerate them. | Natural variation | Short term | Global |
| Minor changes in nutrient cycles, chemical balances, shape of water bodies, and species function. | No major changes in chemical condition of freshwaters as each of the components have adapted to this natural variation. | Natural variation | Short term | Global |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surface area of coastal habitats reduced by rising sea level. | Removal of organic component of coastal sediments and their burial. Loss of carbon sink. | Human action | Long term | Coastal ecosystems |
| Affects health of ecosystems, alters ocean currents and changes biotic communities. | Warming and acidification ocean creates thermal stress (e.g. coral bleaching), sea level rise, sedimentation, Altered ocean currents lead to changes in connectivity and temperature regimes. Ocean acidification leads to a reduction in pH levels and decreases growth rates. | Human action or Natural variation | Short-Long term | Local-Regional-Global |
| Contamination of coastal aquifers with salt water. | Lower quality of groundwater. Higher salinity might affect whether or not groundwater can be used for certain industrial or agricultural processes. | Human action | Long term | Local |
| Likely response | Effect of variability on services provision | Human action or natural variation | Timescale | Spatial Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration of marine litter, especially plastics. | Micro plastics tend to accumulate on certain coastal areas depending on winds and currents as well as at major oceanic fronts known as gyres. | Natural variation | Long term | Coastal ecosystems |
| Increase in freshwater due to melting of ice caps linked to climate change leads to weakening or collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation. | Air-sea carbon uptake substantially reduced. | Human action | Long term | Global |
| Breakdown in thermohaline circulation caused by rapid glacial melting and influx of freshwater to oceans. | Rapid climate cooling and loss of regional climate regulating function. | Human action | Long-term | Regional seas and smaller regions of ocean |
| Affects health of ecosystems, alters ocean currents and changes biotic communities. | Warming and acidification ocean creates thermal stress (e.g. coral bleaching), sea level rise, sedimentation, Altered ocean currents lead to changes in connectivity and temperature regimes. Ocean acidification leads to a reduction in pH levels and decreases growth rates. | Human action or Natural variation | Short-Long term | Local-Regional-Global |
| Sudden changes in chemical balances and pH. | Variations in chemical condition of salt water. The magnitude of the effect of this variation is minor as systems are adapted to tolerate them. | Natural variation | Short term | Global |