GHG emissions

Examples include volume of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), Hydrofluorocarbons, (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs), etc.

Drivers of environmental change:

Natural capital assets:

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Resistance to biological control measures	Loss of efficiency of biological control agents against plant pathogens, e.g. fungicide resistance in fungal plant pathogens.	Natural variation	Long term	Global
Species, e.g. sea urchins, which predate or act as pests for the kelp components increase in	The service provision does not stop but slows down due to reduction in quality and quantity of the asset.	Natural variation	Long term	Global
Control of predator populations	Food availability through a finite source of prey limits nutritional resource for predators and declines in prey will constrain predator population size too.	Natural variation	Short-Mid-term	Global
Human-induced climate change is affecting pollinator species, mainly butterflies. Alterations in species richness and distributions.	Decreased pollination services where species are declining or moving away from areas and increased pollination in areas where species are moving to.	Human action	Short term	Local-Regional
Increases or decreases in local species richness, resulting in increased or decreased seed dispersal	Decreased seed dispersal by native species. Specialist plants (i.e. that rely on one particular species for dispersal) will be more severely affected.	Human action	Short term	Local-Regional
Extinction risk factors including habitat loss and microbial invasions lead to reduction in microbial populations and diversity.	Diminishes the ability of the microorganisms to consume VOCs and ventilate indoor air.	Human action	Short-Long term	Global

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Surface area of coastal habitats reduced by rising sea level.	Removal of organic component of coastal sediments and their burial. Loss of carbon sink.	Human action	Long term	Coastal ecosystems
Coastal wetlands and other ecosystems experience large losses.	Loss of coastal habitats and upward and landward movement of flooding risk zones.	Human action	Mid-Long term	Global
Affects health of ecosystems, alters ocean currents and changes biotic communities.	Warming and acidification ocean creates thermal stress (e.g. coral bleaching), sea level rise, sedimentation, Altered ocean currents lead to changes in connectivity and temperature regimes. Ocean acidification leads to a reduction in pH levels and decreases growth rates.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Long term	Local-Regional-Global

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Surface area of coastal habitats reduced by rising sea level.	Removal of organic component of coastal sediments and their burial. Loss of carbon sink.	Human action	Long term	Coastal ecosystems
Affects health of ecosystems, alters ocean currents and changes biotic communities.	Warming and acidification ocean creates thermal stress (e.g. coral bleaching), sea level rise, sedimentation, Altered ocean currents lead to changes in connectivity and temperature regimes. Ocean acidification leads to a reduction in pH levels and decreases growth rates.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Long term	Local-Regional-Global
Contamination of coastal aquifers with salt water.	Lower quality of groundwater. Higher salinity might affect whether or not groundwater can be used for certain industrial or agricultural processes.	Human action	Long term	Local

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Increase in freshwater due to melting of ice caps linked to climate change leads to weakening or collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation.	Air-sea carbon uptake substantially reduced.	Human action	Long term	Global
Breakdown in thermohaline circulation caused by rapid glacial melting and influx of freshwater to oceans.	Rapid climate cooling and loss of regional climate regulating function.	Human action	Long-term	Regional seas and smaller regions of ocean
Affects health of ecosystems, alters ocean currents and changes biotic communities.	Warming and acidification ocean creates thermal stress (e.g. coral bleaching), sea level rise, sedimentation, Altered ocean currents lead to changes in connectivity and temperature regimes. Ocean acidification leads to a reduction in pH levels and decreases growth rates.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Long term	Local-Regional-Global

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Concentration of marine litter, especially plastics.	Micro plastics tend to accumulate on certain coastal areas depending on winds and currents as well as at major oceanic fronts known as gyres.	Natural variation	Long term	Coastal ecosystems
Increase in freshwater due to melting of ice caps linked to climate change leads to weakening or collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation.	Air-sea carbon uptake substantially reduced.	Human action	Long term	Global
Breakdown in thermohaline circulation caused by rapid glacial melting and influx of freshwater to oceans.	Rapid climate cooling and loss of regional climate regulating function.	Human action	Long-term	Regional seas and smaller regions of ocean
Affects health of ecosystems, alters ocean currents and changes biotic communities.	Warming and acidification ocean creates thermal stress (e.g. coral bleaching), sea level rise, sedimentation, Altered ocean currents lead to changes in connectivity and temperature regimes. Ocean acidification leads to a reduction in pH levels and decreases growth rates.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Long term	Local-Regional-Global
Sudden changes in chemical balances and pH.	Variations in chemical condition of salt water. The magnitude of the effect of this variation is minor as systems are adapted to tolerate them.	Natural variation	Short term	Global

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Caused an annual 1% decline in phytoplankton in worlds’ oceans.	Less carbon absorbed by phytoplankton for photosynthesis.	Human action	Short term	Global
Cyclic and fatally bleached sponge tissues had lower chlorophyll a concentrations than non-bleached tissues.	Sponge pieces incubated at 30°C in a lab show mortality after less than 15 hours with impacts on medicinal compound provision.	Human action	Medium term	Warm water coral reef ecosystems

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Loss of cover due to event induced tree throw. Wave action generated by winds.	Damage protective vegetation.	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Climate change driven rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in extreme weather events threatens fodder crop production.	Models suggest substantial risks to the volume, volatility, and quality of animal feed supply chains despite some gains in productivity.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns creates the risk of crop failure, e.g. the 2010 Russian heatwave and the 2012 US Midwest drought.	Decreasing yields of cereals, contributing to higher food prices and a greater demand than supply.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Damage of protective vegetation and watersheds.	Saturates ecosystem, reduced water storage capacity.	Human action	Short-Long term	Global
Wave action generated by wind and intense storms damages plants and cause changes in hydrology.	Loss or damage of vegetation can cause reduction in sediment retention capacity. Storm induced tree throw exposes soil and triggers erosion.	Natural variation	Short term	Local

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Decreases in the number of plants along a water course. Physical alteration of water bodies.	Reduced number of seed dispersing plants. Changes to the distance and direction of seed dispersal through water bodies, resulting in decreased seed dispersal in the case of long term flooding, or increased seed dispersal in the case of short term flooding.	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Alters biological soil community, structural properties of parent material by exposure to water.	Changes soil’s environment and modifies processes.	Human action	Long term	Local

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Conversion of wetlands for commercial purposes and resource extraction leads to loss of regional climate regulating function.	Conversion of wetlands causes the average temperature to increase by 0.77?C in all four seasons.	Human action	Medium term	Global
Lower species mobility, thus decreased ability to disperse seeds. Altered wind and hydrological processes within a given area will affect how far seeds are dispersed.	Decreased seed dispersal by animals	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Global
Declines in pollinator populations due to reduced access to food and nesting resources (16.5 % of vertebrate pollinator species are threatened with global extinction; in Europe, 9% of bee and butterfly species are threatened, and populations of 37% of bees and 31% of butterflies are declining)	Decreased pollination services during the peak period of pollination (i.e. spring for most crops in temperate zones). 5-8 % of global crop production would be lost if pollination services ceased.	Human action	Short term	Regional
Changes in intensity and extension.	Vegetation alteration can degrade or cause loss of service.	Human action	Short term	Local
Deforestation, loss of biological community.	Alters biological, mechanical and chemical weathering processes. Type of land use determines type of disturbance (tillage, agrochemicals, fertilizers, excrements, etc.) changes soil properties.	Human action	Long term	Local
Changes to the way water flows through landscapes	Increased or decreased availability of water at the local and landscape level.	Human action	Short term	Local

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Habitat degradation and loss of plant species, thus reducing the number of plants available to perform phyto-remediation.	Decreased ability of plants to perform phyto-remediation.	Human action	Short term	Local
Land use change alters sediment supply causing state change in asset	Carbon burial in marine sediments is reduced; carbon emissions increased	Human action	Short term	Coastal ecosystems
Deforestation reduces tree density and diversity	Evapotranspiration decreases, more ground surface exposed increasing albedo and climate warming	Human action	Medium term	Tropics
Conversion of wetlands for commercial purposes and resource extraction leads to loss of regional climate regulating function.	Conversion of wetlands causes the average temperature to increase by 0.77?C in all four seasons.	Human action	Medium term	Global
Forests converted to cultivated land causes removal of above ground biomass.	Increase in carbon emissions.	Human action	Short term	Tropical forests
Deforestation, reduction in vegetation cover	Decreases stability and resistance of topsoil. No barriers for buffering and attenuation.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local
Deforestation, reduction in vegetation cover	Decreases stability and resistance of top-soil. Reduction of erosion control.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local
Forest edges opened up, exposing humans to new diseases from previously uncontacted pathogens	Service provision weakens as there are no factors present for the regulation of the disease transmission cycle	Human action	Short term	Developing countries
Deforestation, road construction, agricultural encroachment, dam building, irrigation, coastal zone degradation, wetland modification, mining, and urbanisation	Complex and interlinked response in asset-service system. Interruption of the natural regulation of habitat for disease hosts results in increased exposure of humans to infectious disease	Human action	Short-Long term	Global
Higher water turbidity (from sediment loading) leads to decreased light availability for photosynthesis.	There has been a loss of canopy-forming algae (up to 70 %) on parts of the Adelaide metropolitan coast since major urbanisation.	Human action	Long term	Coastal ecosystems
The transition from natural to artificial coastal habitat dramatically changes species diversity while overall species abundance remains the same	Changes in species diversity will alter habitat composition and could introduce unwanted effects for marine algae such as increase in predators or diseases. This will reduce the quantity and quality of quality of algal-based agricultural materials.	Human action	Medium term	Global
The supply of wood for pulp and wood ash is decreasing as a result of deforestation and unsustainable logging.	Timber plantations expand into natural forests. Models suggest deforestation over degradation in response to market demands resulting in eventual exhaustion of the supply.	Human action	Short term	Global
There is a strong impact of land use on species composition. For example human land uses and secondary vegetation in an early stage of recovery are poor at retaining the species that characterise pristine (untouched) vegetation.	This loss can impact on fibre production (e.g., cotton) and other wild sourced fibres as land is consumed for other uses.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Global
There is a strong impact of land use on species composition. For example human land uses and secondary vegetation in an early stage of recovery are poor at retaining the species that characterise pristine (untouched) vegetation.	This loss can impact on animal material production and as agricultural land is consumed for other uses.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Global
Reduction in the habitats available to perform filtration and sequestration.	Decreased ability to perform filtration and sequestration of pollutants at the ecosystem level (e.g. resulting from draining of key habitats such as wetlands, raised and blanket bogs; and from reclamation of marine habitats such as saltmarshes).	Human action	Short term	Local
Reduction or complete destruction of vegetation cover, modification of hydrological regime.	Damage and loss of protective vegetation reduces flood attenuation capacity. Changes in river flow alter extent, duration and frequency of floodplain inundation.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local
Freshwater diversion from estuarine areas	Habitat loss leads to disruption of connectivity between spawning, nursery and adult stage habitats.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local-Regional
Changes in intensity and extension.	Vegetation alteration can degrade or cause loss of service.	Human action	Short term	Local
Changes in intensity and extension.	Type of land use determine types of disturbance (tillage, agrochemicals, fertilizers, excrements, etc.) and changes soil properties and water flow rates.	Human action	Short term	Local
Increase in non-native species	Changes in habitat characteristics facilitate non-native species which can outcompete native species creating more opportunities for pests.	Human action	Long term	Global
Changes to the way water flows through landscapes	Increased or decreased availability of water at the local and landscape level.	Human action	Short term	Local

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Alters freshwater supply and resources.	Changed habitat dynamics, reduction in stability of blue carbon habitats.	Human action	Short term	Coastal ecosystems
Conversion of wetlands for commercial purposes and resource extraction leads to loss of regional climate regulating function.	Conversion of wetlands causes the average temperature to increase by 0.77?C in all four seasons.	Human action	Medium term	Global
Certain non-fossil aquifers are no longer being replenished due to alterations made to land cover, meaning that if groundwater is abstracted aquifers will be depleted.	Loss of groundwater provision on a local basis.	Human action	Medium term	Local
Freshwater diversion from estuarine areas	Habitat loss leads to disruption of connectivity between spawning, nursery and adult stage habitats.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local-Regional
Lower species mobility, thus decreased ability to disperse seeds. Altered wind and hydrological processes within a given area will affect how far seeds are dispersed.	Decreased seed dispersal by animals	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Global
Declines in pollinator populations due to reduced access to food and nesting resources (16.5 % of vertebrate pollinator species are threatened with global extinction; in Europe, 9% of bee and butterfly species are threatened, and populations of 37% of bees and 31% of butterflies are declining)	Decreased pollination services during the peak period of pollination (i.e. spring for most crops in temperate zones). 5-8 % of global crop production would be lost if pollination services ceased.	Human action	Short term	Regional
Changes in intensity and extension.	Vegetation alteration can degrade or cause loss of service.	Human action	Short term	Local
Alters water flow, rock structure, topographic characteristics which alter soil composition	Changing decomposition and fixation processes.	Human action	Long term	Local
Alters water flow and availability, and rock structure and topographic characteristics which alter soil composition.	Changing decomposition and fixation processes	Human action	Short term	Local
Disturbance of natural water flows and sedimentation in catchments leading to geophysical alterations of water bodies Water flow will increase or decrease depending on local conditions.	Increase or decrease in provision of surface water. If a certain volume of water is removed for industrial use and is not returned afterwards, then the total volume of surface water in will be decreased by that volume. Increased sedimentation cuts light to animals, leads to nutrient blooms and loss of oxygen.	Human action	Short term	Local
Anthropogenic climate change is leading to severe decreases in water flows and alterations to the geological characteristics of water bodies (e.g. desiccation of entire rivers).	Decrease in surface water provision.	Human action	Long term	Local-Regional-Global
Changes to the way water flows through landscapes	Increased or decreased availability of water at the local and landscape level.	Human action	Short term	Local

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Diversion of drainage furrows, waterways, dam by washes, etc.	Run-off concentration. Increase soil break up and vulnerability to erosion leading to loss of service.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local
Increase slope length and/or steepness	Slope increase causes increase in speed, power and depth of the runoff carrying more soil with it. Influence nature of the soil making it more susceptible to erosion.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local
Deforestation, loss of biological community.	Alters biological, mechanical and chemical weathering processes. Type of land use determines type of disturbance (tillage, agrochemicals, fertilizers, excrements, etc.) changes soil properties.	Human action	Long term	Local

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Damage protective vegetation.	Poor vegetation cover. Damage protective vegetation.	Human action	Short term	Local
Climate change driven rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in extreme weather events threatens fodder crop production.	Models suggest substantial risks to the volume, volatility, and quality of animal feed supply chains despite some gains in productivity.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns creates the risk of crop failure, e.g. the 2010 Russian heatwave and the 2012 US Midwest drought.	Decreasing yields of cereals, contributing to higher food prices and a greater demand than supply.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Damage protective vegetation. Loss of cover due to event induced tree throw. Scalding removes topsoil.	Reduction of erosion control.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Long term	Global
Drought displaces or reduces populations of biota. Also reduces thickness of soil water films and inhibits enzymes.	Disturbance of biotic and abiotic factors poses environmental constraints that can temporarily or indefinitely affect decomposition sensitivity.	Human action	Short-Long term	Local-Global

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Increased evaporation rates and reduced freshwater flow resulting in deterioration of the water quality.	Reduction of the dilution capacity of point source effluents. Decline in water quality is primarily caused by favourable conditions for the development of algae blooms (high water temperatures, long residence times, high nutrient concentrations). Changes in water temperature, eutrophication, major elements, and some heavy metals and metalloids.	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Decrease in the amount of water available to disperse seeds	Decreased seed dispersal by water bodies	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Drought displaces or reduces populations of biota. Also reduces thickness of soil water films and inhibits enzymes.	Disturbance of biotic and abiotic factors poses environmental constraints that can temporarily or indefinitely affect decomposition sensitivity.	Human action	Short-Long term	Local-Global
Increases in nutrients and changes in chemical composition of freshwater bodies. Physical alterations of turbidity and water flow.	Increased nutrients and/or chemicals can upset chemical condition of freshwater.	Human action	Short term	Regional
Anthropogenic climate change is leading to more frequent and severe droughts. Severe decreases in water flows and alterations to the geological characteristics of water bodies (e.g. desiccation of entire rivers).	Decrease in surface water provision.	Human action	Long term	Local-Regional-Global

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Change in service demand based on climate change impacts on water availability.	The adaptability of the animals to climatic changes will determine the availability of the provision of the service. Animals which adapt faster to climate extremes, e.g. to aridity will maintain provision of the service. are most suited to particular areas. Already drought resistant animals (notably donkeys) are becoming increasingly appreciated in the drought affected areas of southern, eastern and western Africa. Over time though, animals adapt to grazing and consuming different types of grasses and plant species dependent upon on location, climate and availability.	Human action	Long term	Global
Climate change driven rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in extreme weather events threatens fodder crop production.	Models suggest substantial risks to the volume, volatility, and quality of animal feed supply chains despite some gains in productivity.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns creates the risk of crop failure, e.g. the 2010 Russian heatwave and the 2012 US Midwest drought.	Decreasing yields of cereals, contributing to higher food prices and a greater demand than supply.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Decrease in the amount of water available to disperse seeds	Decreased seed dispersal by water bodies	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Drought displaces or reduces populations of biota. Also reduces thickness of soil water films and inhibits enzymes.	Disturbance of biotic and abiotic factors poses environmental constraints that can temporarily or indefinitely affect decomposition sensitivity.	Human action	Short-Long term	Local-Global
Increases in nutrients and changes in chemical composition of freshwater bodies. Physical alterations of turbidity and water flow.	Increased nutrients and/or chemicals can upset chemical condition of freshwater.	Human action	Short term	Regional

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Prolonged periods of high pressure with little air movement can lead to temperature inversions (reversal of the normal decrease of air temperature with altitude).	Decrease in air flow reduces dilution effect and leads to accumulation of dust and pollutants.	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Climatic anomalies (e.g. ENSO) create deficits and excesses in temperature and precipitation.	Regulation of regional climate is heavily impacted, e.g. an El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October causing major flooding in southern hemisphere countries such as Peru and Ecuador.	Natural variation	Long-term	Regional
Alters conditions: temperature, humidity, rainfall.	Climatic conditions affect air pollution levels and absorption by vegetation. Climate changes may alter vegetation. Droughts may cause disruption of water for sound attenuation.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Mid-term	Global
Increases or decreases in wind velocity.	Increases or decreases in dispersal distance through wind.	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Increases or decreases in wind velocity on a local basis	Increased or decreased quality of seed dispersal through wind	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Alteration of biochemical and chemical reactions.	Biochemical reactions involved in decomposition and fixation processes are temperature dependent and have high temperature sensitivity. Low temperatures cause slow rates of chemical weathering and rely on physical processes. Warmth favours chemical weathering over physical, leading to deeper weathering.	Human action	Long term	Global
More unstable precipitation patterns and increases in global temperature.	Increases or decreases in water balance at a local and regional scale	Human action	Short term	Global
Increases or decreases in the amount of rainfall and solar energy available on a regional/local basis.	Increased or decreased water balances within landscapes.	Natural variation	Short term	Regional

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Rainfall intensity	Risk as heavy raindrops on bare soil causes soil surface to seal increasing erodibility. Increased soil break up and vulnerability to water erosion.	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Rainfall intensity	Risk as heavy raindrops on bare soil causes soil surface to seal increasing erodibility.	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Species (of pathogens or their hosts) range shifts due to change in climate conditions	Usual predator-prey relationships change and harmful species can spread into areas where they are not predated on	Human action	Long term	Global
Permafrost (frozen soil layer) melting due to higher average annual temperatures	Methane gas bubbles trapped in soil released as it melts, increasing emissions to the atmosphere, exacerbating the warming effect in the short term and causing a positive feedback in the long term as warming continues to melt permafrost releasing more methane.	Human action	Long term	High latitudes
Climatic anomalies (e.g. ENSO) create deficits and excesses in temperature and precipitation.	Regulation of regional climate is heavily impacted, e.g. an El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October causing major flooding in southern hemisphere countries such as Peru and Ecuador.	Natural variation	Long-term	Regional
Climate change driven rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in extreme weather events threatens fodder crop production.	Models suggest substantial risks to the volume, volatility, and quality of animal feed supply chains despite some gains in productivity.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns creates the risk of crop failure, e.g. the 2010 Russian heatwave and the 2012 US Midwest drought.	Decreasing yields of cereals, contributing to higher food prices and a greater demand than supply.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Climate anomalies cause changes to the photosynthetic cycle and global greening patterns.	There is a quantitative link between climate anomalies such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation and weather events. There is evidence of reduced vegetation greenness during ENSO events in sub-tropical parts of the southern hemisphere impacting fibre provision.	Natural variation	Medium term	Semi-arid vegetation in the southern hemisphere
Increased or decreased functioning of habitats within ecosystems	Increased or decreased ability of habitats to perform filtration, sequestration, storage, and/or accumulation of pollutants within ecosystems.	Natural variation	Short term	Regional-Global
Damage of protective vegetation and watersheds.	Reduction of flood attenuation capacity.	Human action	Short-Long term	Global
Alters conditions: temperature, humidity, rainfall.	Climatic conditions affect air pollution levels and absorption by vegetation. Climate changes may alter vegetation. Droughts may cause disruption of water for sound attenuation.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Mid-term	Global
Alteration of biochemical and chemical reactions.	Biochemical and chemical reactions involved in decomposition and fixation processes are temperature dependent and have high temperature sensitivity.	Human action	Short-Long term	Global
More unstable precipitation patterns and increases in global temperature.	Increases or decreases in water balance at a local and regional scale	Human action	Short term	Global
Increases or decreases in the amount of rainfall and solar energy available on a regional/local basis.	Increased or decreased water balances within landscapes.	Natural variation	Short term	Regional

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Mixed layers of water.	Well mixed layers increase dilution potential of seawater.	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Climatic anomalies (e.g. ENSO) create deficits and excesses in temperature and precipitation.	Regulation of regional climate is heavily impacted, e.g. an El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October causing major flooding in southern hemisphere countries such as Peru and Ecuador.	Natural variation	Long-term	Regional
Pollution resulting from anthropogenic climate change increases in rainfall. Contamination of aquifers and decreased quality of groundwater.	Lower quality of groundwater resulting from increased leaching of contaminants (e.g. nitrates) contained in rain water.	Human action	Medium term	Local
Increase or decrease of water available in groundwater sources.	Seasonal or annual variation (i.e. increase or decrease) in groundwater provision to the bodies that depend on it (e.g. rivers, lakes, wetlands).	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Alters conditions: temperature, humidity, rainfall.	Climatic conditions affect air pollution levels and absorption by vegetation. Climate changes may alter vegetation. Droughts may cause disruption of water for sound attenuation.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Mid-term	Global
Increases or decreases in wind velocity.	Increases or decreases in dispersal distance through wind.	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Increases or decreases in wind velocity on a local basis	Increased or decreased quality of seed dispersal through wind	Natural variation	Short term	Local
More unstable precipitation patterns and increases in global temperature.	Increases or decreases in water balance at a local and regional scale	Human action	Short term	Global
Increases or decreases in the amount of rainfall and solar energy available on a regional/local basis.	Increased or decreased water balances within landscapes.	Natural variation	Short term	Regional
Alteration of biochemical and chemical reactions.	Biochemical reactions involved in decomposition and fixation processes are temperature dependent and have high temperature sensitivity. Low temperatures cause slow rates of chemical weathering and rely on physical processes. Warmth favours chemical weathering over physical, leading to deeper weathering.	Human action	Long term	Global
Alteration of biochemical and chemical reactions.	Biochemical and chemical reactions involved in decomposition and fixation processes are temperature dependent and have high temperature sensitivity.	Human action	Short-Long term	Global
This affects watershed- or catchment-level water flows (i.e. increase or decrease in volume of water flowing through water bodies).	Increase or decrease in surface water provision.	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Changes in nutrient cycles	Decreased chemical condition of freshwaters	Human action	Long term	Global
Changes in salinity and temperature.	Variations in chemical condition of salt water. The magnitude of the effect of this variation is minor as systems are adapted to tolerate them.	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Minor changes in nutrient cycles, chemical balances, shape of water bodies, and species function.	No major changes in chemical condition of freshwaters as each of the components have adapted to this natural variation.	Natural variation	Short term	Global

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Increased or decreased availability of solar energy for algae, which affects how well species are able to grow, survive, and perform their bio-remediation function.	Increased or decreased bio-remediation performed by algae. This variation occurs on seasonal or annual basis (e.g. solar radiance is lower in winter or when cloud cover is dense)	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Species (of pathogens or their hosts) range shifts due to change in climate conditions	Usual predator-prey relationships change and harmful species can spread into areas where they are not predated on	Human action	Long term	Global
Permafrost (frozen soil layer) melting due to higher average annual temperatures	Methane gas bubbles trapped in soil released as it melts, increasing emissions to the atmosphere, exacerbating the warming effect in the short term and causing a positive feedback in the long term as warming continues to melt permafrost releasing more methane.	Human action	Long term	High latitudes
Climate change driven rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in extreme weather events threatens fodder crop production.	Models suggest substantial risks to the volume, volatility, and quality of animal feed supply chains despite some gains in productivity.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns creates the risk of crop failure, e.g. the 2010 Russian heatwave and the 2012 US Midwest drought.	Decreasing yields of cereals, contributing to higher food prices and a greater demand than supply.	Human action	Long-term	Global
Climate anomalies cause changes to the photosynthetic cycle and global greening patterns.	There is a quantitative link between climate anomalies such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation and weather events. There is evidence of reduced vegetation greenness during ENSO events in sub-tropical parts of the southern hemisphere impacting fibre provision.	Natural variation	Medium term	Semi-arid vegetation in the southern hemisphere
Decreased ability of plants to perform filtration and sequestration of pollutants.	Decreased filtration and sequestration of pollutants by plants.	Natural variation	Short term	Regional
Alters conditions: temperature, humidity, rainfall.	Climatic conditions affect air pollution levels and absorption by vegetation. Climate changes may alter vegetation. Droughts may cause disruption of water for sound attenuation.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Mid-term	Global
Increases or decreases in wind velocity.	Increases or decreases in dispersal distance through wind.	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Increases or decreases in wind velocity on a local basis	Increased or decreased quality of seed dispersal through wind	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Alteration of biochemical and chemical reactions.	Biochemical reactions involved in decomposition and fixation processes are temperature dependent and have high temperature sensitivity. Low temperatures cause slow rates of chemical weathering and rely on physical processes. Warmth favours chemical weathering over physical, leading to deeper weathering.	Human action	Long term	Global
Alteration of biochemical and chemical reactions.	Biochemical and chemical reactions involved in decomposition and fixation processes are temperature dependent and have high temperature sensitivity.	Human action	Short-Long term	Global
Can lead to changes in a plant’s ability to keep cool.	Plants can dry out in excessive transpiration induced by aridity.	Natural variation	Short term	Local
Changes in nutrient cycles	Decreased chemical condition of freshwaters	Human action	Long term	Global
Changes in salinity and temperature.	Variations in chemical condition of salt water. The magnitude of the effect of this variation is minor as systems are adapted to tolerate them.	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Minor changes in nutrient cycles, chemical balances, shape of water bodies, and species function.	No major changes in chemical condition of freshwaters as each of the components have adapted to this natural variation.	Natural variation	Short term	Global

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Alters conditions: temperature, humidity, rainfall	Pollution may alter presence and conditions of urban and suburban vegetation, may diminish plants’ capacity of gas absorption.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Global
Altered wind dynamics and the ability of wind to disperse seeds	Decreased dispersal distance of seeds by wind	Human action	Short term	Local
Microbiota are sensitive to metal pollution. Toxicity of heavy metals displaces exchangeable nutrients from binding sites.	Acid rain and pollution, acidity in air, etc. alters weathering agents in the environment (water, soil, air).	Human action	Long term	Local-Global
Suppressed rainfall in highly polluted areas due to reduced efficiency of clouds at releasing precipitation.	Decreased water balance and disrupted hydrological cycle in polluted areas	Human action	Short term	Local

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Reduction in dilution service potential.	Both point and non-point source pollutants results in eutrophication and coastal economic damage, e.g. beach closures.	Human action	Short term	Coastal ecosystems
Habitat loss due to overfertilization and toxics contamination	Habitat loss due to clouding of coastal waters by sediment from run-off and toxics which leads to contamination.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local-Regional
Lower quality of groundwater.	Lower quality of groundwater.	Human action	Medium term	Local
Alters conditions: temperature, humidity, rainfall	Pollution may alter presence and conditions of urban and suburban vegetation, may diminish plants’ capacity of gas absorption.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Global
Altered wind dynamics and the ability of wind to disperse seeds	Decreased dispersal distance of seeds by wind	Human action	Short term	Local
Microbiota are sensitive to metal pollution. Toxicity of heavy metals displaces exchangeable nutrients from binding sites.	Acid rain and pollution, acidity in air, etc. alters weathering agents in the environment (water, soil, air).	Human action	Long term	Local-Global
Microbiota are sensitive to metal pollution. Toxicity of heavy metals displaces exchangeable nutrients from binding sites.	Pollution inhibits litter decomposition. Decomposition is sensitive to pollution and metals contaminants at the microbial level. Metal pollution also makes plant matter difficult to decompose. May lead to algal blooms.	Human action	Short-Long term	Local-Global
Alterations to nutrient cycles and balances resulting from pollution due to human activities.	Reduced quality of water resources.	Human action	Short term	Global
Suppressed rainfall in highly polluted areas due to reduced efficiency of clouds at releasing precipitation.	Decreased water balance and disrupted hydrological cycle in polluted areas	Human action	Short term	Local
Alteration of chemical composition of salt water bodies and decreased pH of salt water.	Decreased quality of salt water.	Human action	Short term	Global
Alteration of nutrient cycles (e.g. leading to algal blooms and eutrophication), pH level, and changes to chemical composition of salt waters. Algal blooms smother sea grass. Eutrophication leads to creation of “dead zones” in the ocean, which are areas that are entirely deprived of oxygen.	Decreased chemical quality of salt water.	Human action	Short term	Local
Increases in nutrients, sediments and changes in chemical composition of freshwater bodies, decreased species survival.	Decreased chemical condition of freshwaters.	Human action	Short term	Regional

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Habitat degradation and reduction or interruption of algal species’ ability to perform bio-remediation.	Decreased bio-remediation due to decreased ability of algae to perform bio-remediation.	Human action	Short term	Local
Excess nutrient loads and sunlight cause imbalances in micro algae concentrations. Harmful toxins produced by the bloom kill beneficial cyanobacteria.	Any services arising from the algae will be diminished or stopped.	Human action	Short term	Global
Reduction in the ability of habitats to filter or capture pollutants.	Decreased filtration, adsorption, or accumulation of pollutants at the ecosystem level.	Human action	Short term	Local
Habitat loss due to overfertilization and toxics contamination	Habitat loss due to clouding of coastal waters by sediment from run-off and toxics which leads to contamination.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local-Regional
Alters conditions: temperature, humidity, rainfall	Pollution may alter presence and conditions of urban and suburban vegetation, may diminish plants’ capacity of gas absorption.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Global
Microbiota are sensitive to metal pollution. Toxicity of heavy metals displaces exchangeable nutrients from binding sites.	Pollution inhibits litter decomposition. Decomposition is sensitive to pollution and metals contaminants at the microbial level. Metal pollution also makes plant matter difficult to decompose. May lead to algal blooms.	Human action	Short-Long term	Local-Global
Suppressed rainfall in highly polluted areas due to reduced efficiency of clouds at releasing precipitation.	Decreased water balance and disrupted hydrological cycle in polluted areas	Human action	Short term	Local

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Detrital material produced by storms caused annual erosion of two species of kelp of between 0.5 and 1.7 kg dry weight per m2. Erosion rate was positively related to water temperature and site exposure.	Increased erosion of kelp blades by storms. Increased storm frequency will lead to removal of the kelp component and reduction in overall standing biomass.	Human action	Long-term	Marine kelp forests in mid-latitude systems
Increased erosion of kelp blades due to increased storm frequency, linked to global climate change	Greater destruction through mechanical breakup of the kelp component and reduction in overall standing biomass. Detrital material produced by storms caused annual erosion of two species of kelp of between 0.5 and 1.7 kg dry weight per m2 . Erosion positively related to water temperature and site exposure.	Human action	Long-term	Marine kelp forests in mid-latitude systems
Affects health of ecosystems, leads to altered ocean current and water runoff changes.	Changes in storm patterns leads to destruction of structures. Changes in precipitation create increases in runoff of freshwater, and land based pollutants.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Long term	Local-Regional-Global
Increases or decreases in wind velocity on a local basis	Increased or decreased quality of seed dispersal through wind	Human action	Short term	Global
Increases in nutrients and changes in chemical composition of freshwater bodies. Physical alterations of turbidity and water flow.	Increased nutrients and/or chemicals can upset chemical condition of freshwater.	Human action	Short term	Regional

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
There will be a reduction in plant based fibre material post fire and during recovery period.	Imbalances in the fire cycle caused by extreme weather such as drought can create severe fires which affect provision of fibre and other plant based materials.	Natural variation	Long-term	Global
Damage protective vegetation. Loss of cover due to event induced tree throw. Scalding removes topsoil.	Reduction of erosion control.	Human action or Natural variation	Short-Long term	Global

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Displacement or local extinction of biotic communities.	Alien species altering ecology of system, e.g. displacing relevant species to maintain services.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local
Invasive species can deviate pollinators from the plants they normally pollinate (in the case of invasive plants) or can outcompete native pollinators (in the case of invasive pollinators)	Decreased pollination services from native pollinators to native plants.	Human action	Short term	Local
Reduced species survival and reduced ability of native species to disperse seeds. Reduced ability of water bodies to effectively disperse seeds.	Decreased seed dispersal by native species, and possibly less efficient seed dispersal where invasive species replace native species. Reduced water mobility due to invasive plants, leading to reduction in seed dispersal distance by water bodies.	Human action	Short term	Local
Alteration of chemical properties of salt water bodies.	Decreased chemical quality of salt water.	Human action	Short term	Local
Altered chemical balances of freshwater bodies and competition with native species	Decreased chemical condition of freshwaters resulting from lower species diversity, loss of native species, and changes in nutrient and chemical balances.	Human action	Short term	Local-Regional

Drivers of environmental change:

Natural capital assets:

Species

Natural capital assets:

Habitats

Water

Natural capital assets:

Habitats

Water

Natural capital assets:

Species

Water

Habitats

Soils and sediments

Natural capital assets:

Habitats

Land geomorphology

Water

Soils and sediments

Species

Natural capital assets:

Atmosphere

Habitats

Minerals

Species

Water

Land geomorphology

Soils and sediments

Natural capital assets:

Atmosphere

Natural capital assets:

Habitats

Water

Soils and sediments

Species

Natural capital assets:

Habitats

Species

Water

Natural capital assets:

Atmosphere

Habitats

Water

Soils and sediments

Species

Natural capital assets:

Atmosphere

Water

Habitats

Soils and sediments

Species

Natural capital assets:

Minerals

Soils and sediments

Land geomorphology

Species

Natural capital assets:

Species

Natural capital assets:

Habitats

Water

Soils and sediments

Species

Natural capital assets:

Habitats

Soils and sediments

Natural capital assets:

Water

Species

Likely response	Effect of variability on services provision	Human action or natural variation	Timescale	Spatial Characteristics
Increased populations of sea urchins lead to overgrazing of kelp	Decreased bio-remediation by kelp	Human action	Mid-Long term	Global
Species, e.g. sea urchins, which predate or act as pests for the kelp components increase in numbers.	The service provision does not stop but slows down due to reduction in quality and quantity of the asset.	Natural variation	Long term	Global
Burrs (seeds that have hooks or teeth) from burr-bearing plants, in wool contaminate fleeces, requiring more complex and expensive removal operations. Leather is also at risk from blowflies.	Service slowed down and more costly at the fleece or leather processing stage.	Natural variation	Short term	Global
Displacement or local extinction of biotic communities.	Alien species altering ecology of system, e.g. displacing relevant species to maintain services.	Human action	Short-Mid-term	Local
Invasive species can deviate pollinators from the plants they normally pollinate (in the case of invasive plants) or can outcompete native pollinators (in the case of invasive pollinators)	Decreased pollination services from native pollinators to native plants.	Human action	Short term	Local
Reduced species survival and reduced ability of native species to disperse seeds. Reduced ability of water bodies to effectively disperse seeds.	Decreased seed dispersal by native species, and possibly less efficient seed dispersal where invasive species replace native species. Reduced water mobility due to invasive plants, leading to reduction in seed dispersal distance by water bodies.	Human action	Short term	Local
Alteration of chemical properties of salt water bodies.	Decreased chemical quality of salt water.	Human action	Short term	Local
Altered chemical balances of freshwater bodies and competition with native species	Decreased chemical condition of freshwaters resulting from lower species diversity, loss of native species, and changes in nutrient and chemical balances.	Human action	Short term	Local-Regional